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Cash is king when it’s used effectively
Roger Montgomery
May 2, 2025
In the world of investing, few assets are as polarising as cash. On one hand, holding cash in an environment where interest rates lag inflation guarantees a loss of purchasing power. On the other hand, cash can be a powerful tactical tool for seizing opportunities, particularly in times of market distress.
This article was first published in The Australian on 24 April 2025. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.
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A return to fundamentals
Roger Montgomery
April 29, 2025
In the second week of April, the S&P 500 recorded a historic day, on Tuesday the key Wall Street index’s intraday swing marked the first time since at least 1978 the benchmark hit an intraday high up more than 4 per cent – only to close down more than 1 per cent. And the Nasdaq blew its biggest intraday gain since at least 1982. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.
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Why the collapse of building companies is a wake-up call to private credit investors
Roger Montgomery
April 14, 2025
If you haven’t noticed, the U.S. construction sector is that economy’s wildcard, and it’s sounding an alarm bell that can be heard across the Pacific all the way to Australia.
With our own construction industry grappling with challenges and vulnerabilities highlighted by a wave of recent high-profile collapses, investors – especially private credit investors – you need to sit up, pay attention and make some decisions. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.
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Australian Eagle Asset Management in the Australian Financial Review
Sean Sequeira
February 27, 2025
In this article for the Australian Financial Review, I shared some of my investment milestones throughout my 30-year career. I discussed the Australian Eagle Asset Management team’s strategy of identifying pivotal changes in businesses, highlighting successful investments in Fortescue (ASX:FMG) and Altium (ASX:ALU), as well as lessons learned from early exits like TechnologyOne (ASX:TNE). I also shared some insights into Australian Eagle’s investment philosophy, some stocks we believe have potential, including Dexus (ASX:DXS) and Silex Systems (ASX:SLX). continue…
by Sean Sequeira Posted in In the Press.
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Ausbiz – should we be less certain on a bullish 2025 now?
Roger Montgomery
February 20, 2025
I joined Ausbiz to discuss the market’s strong reactions to earnings surprises this reporting season, the competitive advantages driving companies like the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ahead of rivals, and Nick Scali’s growth through strategic acquisitions. I also shared my broader market outlook, highlighting the importance of disinflation, economic growth, and liquidity for a bull market, while questioning the sustainability of liquidity in future gains. Listen to the full interview here: Ausbiz – should we be less certain on a bullish 2025 for now?
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, TV Appearances.
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How DeepSeek has exposed the short lifespan of monopolies
Roger Montgomery
February 12, 2025
What are the best businesses? The answer to that question is “monopolies” and investors need to ask whether the current crop of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven large language models (LLM’s) and the suppliers of their chips, storage and energy need have the monopoly characteristics they assumed.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.
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Why Wall Street shares should continue their winning ways in 2025
Roger Montgomery
January 28, 2025
The American sharemarket continues to prove its resilience heading into 2025, despite periodic bouts of volatility that have stirred concerns among investors.
Although recent Federal Reserve statements about slowing the pace of future rate cuts prompted a swift market pullback and led to higher bond yields, many analysts believe any downturn will be short-lived.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.
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The bulls have been charging but how much energy do they have?
Roger Montgomery
December 30, 2024
As we know, the current sharemarket rally could pause or retreat on the back of a shift in sentiment in late 2025 or in 2026.
Massive demands on liquidity from the refinancing of about US$70 trillion of global debt taken up when interest rates were zero would leave less liquidity to sustain the rally in shares, bitcoin and everything else. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary.
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Clear and present danger to sharemarkets posed by Republican presidencies
Roger Montgomery
November 25, 2024
Immediately after Donald Trump’s election as the next president of the United States, market analysts began exploring historical correlations to assess potential implications for investors.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, In the Press.
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Market volatility and the unbottling of ‘turning points’
Roger Montgomery
October 2, 2024
When I worked in derivatives trading in the early ’90s, one of the accepted truths about market behaviour was that “volatility picks up around turning points”.
It was, for example, wise to be alert to the possibility of a large move lower if volatility emerged after a long rally. And while it has been my experience that volatility does indeed cluster around major turning points, it’s possible I only remember what I want to. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, In the Press, Market commentary.
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It seems like a distant memory now, but 2025 began with an upbeat outlook, buoyed by deregulation and robust earnings. By February, however, the mood shifted as the U.S. released a significant trade policy document, hinting at a tough stance towards its trading partners.